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Team Dignitas to decide it all |
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Geschrieben von kaLi
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Mittwoch, 27. Mai 2009 |
 What a final playday of the ESL Premiership Season III !
Even though 2 teams retired during the season, it couldn't be any more thrilling!
Five teams are going to fight for only two slots for the play-offs, which are namely:
 Team Dignitas,  Inferno eSports,  RAPTOR-GAMING,  keen Generation and  ENERGIE5
Andreas 'kaLi' Karlsberger had a look on the current situation in the Premier League and the possible conclusions of the last playday of this season.
Check it out and click Read more!
Tight, tighter, Premier League! - Could be the motto of the ESL Premiership Season III.
After 8 playdays, whereas the teams only have had 6 matches so far, more or less nothing is decided yet. We only know already that  Team Celsus and n!faculty have their slot for the upcoming play-offs and UBITEAM will have to play the relegation to have the chance of another season in the Premier League.
But what's the current situation?
The table looks as follows:
| # |
Name |
Points |
Matches |
Score |
Diff. |
| 1. |
Team Celsus.TM |
18 |
6-0-0 |
37-11 |
+26 |
| 2. |
faculty Trackmania |
15 |
5-0-1 |
37-11 |
+26 |
| 3. |
Team Dignitas |
9 |
3-0-3 |
27-21 |
+6 |
| 4. |
Inferno eSports |
9 |
3-0-3 |
22-26 |
-4 |
| 5. |
RAPTOR-GAMING |
9 |
3-0-3 |
19-29 |
-10 |
| 6. |
keen Generation |
6 |
2-0-4 |
23-25 |
-2 |
| 7. |
ENERGIE5 |
6 |
2-0-4 |
22-26 |
-4 |
| 8. |
UBITEAM |
0 |
0-0-6 |
5-43 |
-38 |
Kind of looks like the season would be more or less decided already at first, considering three teams all have 9 points, but if we have a closer look we see that five teams are still able to claim a play-off slot theoretically.
You might probably think: "Yeah, theoretically everything is possible but this doesn't sound any realistic at all!"
In this case I need to tell you, that you're completely wrong!
Only 2 things are for sure yet, seeing Team Celsus and n!faculty can't lose their play-off slot anymore and the UBITEAM has to play the relegation for sure. The two teams that retired during the season, namely Revoltados and inteRaction, automatically take the last two places, 9 and 10, in the table which means, they have to go down to the 2nd League directly.
So what is yet to decide?
Let's have a look at the teams that will fight for the last two play-off slots and who's got the best chances to grab them.
| # |
Name |
Points |
Matches |
Score |
Diff. |
| 3. |
Team Dignitas |
9 |
3-0-3 |
27-21 |
+6 |
| 4. |
Inferno eSports |
9 |
3-0-3 |
22-26 |
-4 |
| 5. |
RAPTOR-GAMING |
9 |
3-0-3 |
19-29 |
-10 |
| 6. |
keen Generation |
6 |
2-0-4 |
23-25 |
-2 |
| 7. |
ENERGIE5 |
6 |
2-0-4 |
22-26 |
-4 |
Three teams have earned 9 points already namely, Team Dignitas, Inferno eSports and RAPTOR-GAMING and another two teams stand at 6 points so far which are keen Generation and ENERGIE5.
Now let's have a look at the last playday's matches:
Inferno eSports vs. n!faculty
Team Dignitas vs. Team Celsus
UBITEAM vs. RAPTOR-GAMING
keen Generation vs. ENERGIE5
Inferno eSports vs. n!faculty:
According to Maxou, Inferno will probably only be able to play the 1on1 and the 2on2's. From this it follows that n!faculty will leave the server as the winner of the match with a score from at least 5-3, which would give them 18 points in total.
Inferno would stay at 9 points with a score difference from at least -6, or maybe even -12 if they lose 0-8. This result means that the winner of the last season, Inferno, won't grab a play-off slot and will take the 5th or 6th place this year.
Expectation: Inferno 0 - 8 n!faculty
Team Dignitas vs. Team Celsus:
Duel of the giants, is what this match could have been, if Dignitas wouldn't be as unmotivated as a sloth. They gave n!faculty a default-win last Sunday which makes it quite possible that this will happen again. But on the other side we have Celsus, the only undefeated team of this season showing impressive performances against the world's best teams in the Premier League. It's obvious that Celsus has got big chances to win this match either per default-win or on the track with a huge amount of stardrivers within their ranks. However if Celsus manages to win this match they'll stay at the top of the table with 21 points earned, and Dignitas will remain at 9 points with a score difference from +4 to -2 in the worst case.
Expectation: Dignitas 1 - 7 Celsus
UBITEAM vs. RAPTOR-GAMING:
'Nothing to lose' versus 'All or nothing' fits quite good for the match between the French UBITEAM and the German team from RAPTOR-GAMING. After 6 played matches UBI holds the 8th place in the group with 6 losses and a score difference of -38. However RAPTOR has got a huge chance to reach the play-offs by winning this match, as they hold at 9 points currently and a score difference of -10. tOto himself said that he won't play this match for UBI, which makes it a lot easier for the Germans to win it and thus hold at 12 points at the end of the season which would result in the 3rd place if Inferno and Dignitas lose as it is expected. After a terrible start for RAPTOR with 2 losses they were able to do a huge comeback and finally they've got it all in their hands to reach the play-offs.
Expectation: UBI 2 - 6 RAPTOR
keen Generation vs. ENERGIE5:
This match is going to be the most interesting on this last playday considering if one of the teams win, the winning team can reach the playoffs whereas the other one will have to play the relegation for sure. So the motto of this match for both is: All or nothing!
But how come this situation is possible? Let's check the facts:
kG and E5 both currently have got 6 points earned with score differences of -2 for kG and -4 for E5.
If kG manages to win this match they hold at 9 points with a score difference of at least 0 up to +6 possible and if E5 would win they'd have 9 points too with a score difference from -2 to +4 possible. So the loser of this match will remain at 6 points, which means he's gonna be on the 7th place at the end of the season and thus have to play the relegation.
They need to hope though, that the matches of Dignitas and Inferno will end up as expected, so both teams here have the chance to grab the 4th place if they manage to win this match. However the winner of kG vs. E5 will have 9 points and then the score difference compared to Dignitas counts. Whoever is going to win this match has to earn as much submatch points as possible to probably reach the 4th play-off slot and make the impossible thing possible. If the winner of this match would have the same score difference as Dignitas, the direct match comparison would count, which would be positive for kG and negative for E5. All in all the 6th and 7th of the current table have got very good chances with a high win in the direct duel to reach a top 4 place and thus be able to play in the play-offs!
Expectations for this match are more or less impossible to make considering everything from kG 7-1 E5 to kG 1-7 E5 sounds realistic.
Let's have a look how the table at the end of this season would look like if the matches end as expected:
kG 7-1 E5
| # |
Name |
Points |
Matches |
Score |
Diff. |
| 1. |
Team Celsus.TM |
21 |
7-0-0 |
44-12 |
+32 |
| 2. |
faculty Trackmania |
18 |
6-0-1 |
45-11 |
+34 |
| 3. |
RAPTOR-GAMING |
12 |
4-0-3 |
25-31 |
-6 |
| 4. |
keen Generation |
9 |
3-0-4 |
30-27 |
+3
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| 5. |
Team Dignitas |
9 |
3-0-4 |
28-28 |
0 |
| 6. |
Inferno eSports |
9 |
3-0-4 |
22-34 |
-12 |
| 7. |
ENERGIE5 |
6 |
2-0-5 |
24-32 |
-8 |
| 8. |
UBITEAM |
0 |
0-0-7 |
7-49 |
-42 |
kG 1-7 E5
| # |
Name |
Points |
Matches |
Score |
Diff. |
| 1. |
Team Celsus.TM |
21 |
7-0-0 |
44-12 |
+32 |
| 2. |
faculty Trackmania |
18 |
6-0-1 |
45-11 |
+34 |
| 3. |
RAPTOR-GAMING |
12 |
4-0-3 |
25-31 |
-6 |
4.
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ENERGIE5 |
9 |
3-0-4 |
29-27 |
+2
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| 5. |
Team Dignitas |
9 |
3-0-4 |
28-28 |
0 |
| 6. |
Inferno eSports |
9 |
3-0-4 |
22-34 |
-12 |
| 7. |
keen Generation |
6 |
2-0-5 |
24-32 |
-8 |
| 8. |
UBITEAM |
0 |
0-0-7 |
7-49 |
-42 |
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